@LarrySabato


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Larry Sabato
22 minutes ago:   Friday Mar 22 - 2:00pm
It wasn't so bad because they lied to us. My elementary school was a mile from the largest naval base in the world (Norfolk, VA). We were told that 'duck-and-cover' would save us. In fact, we would have been instantly incinerated. https://t.co/6eO52rLcIj

Larry Sabato
36 minutes ago:   Friday Mar 22 - 1:46pm
If you lived through the year 1968 and were at least age 15, you wouldn't be quite as pessimistic about the future today. The Daily 202 from @PowerPost https://t.co/GxXJdjhRIM

Larry Sabato
21 hours ago:   Thursday Mar 21 - 4:59pm
@einsteinboricua @John_Weiss99 When in doubt, actually read the article. Thank you.

Larry Sabato
21 hours ago:   Thursday Mar 21 - 4:25pm
@bronxinNC True but anybody following me knows I RT @TheOnion and @andyborowitz a lot. Without a sense of humor and satire in the Trump era, it is difficult to keep going. And about that, I’m quite serious.

Larry Sabato
22 hours ago:   Thursday Mar 21 - 3:48pm
Trump Ramps Up Attacks On John McCain By Dragging Senator’s Exhumed Corpse Behind Motorcade https://t.co/btmZyrVWYi

Larry Sabato
23 hours ago:   Thursday Mar 21 - 2:47pm
This compares 2000 and 2016. See the entire Crystal Ball for an explanation of the 50-state shifts. https://t.co/f5RDu6y6jc

Larry Sabato
23 hours ago:   Thursday Mar 21 - 2:42pm
On the Electoral College map, we think too much in simple terms of Red and Blue. State politics is dynamic. How states TREND is as important in some cases as how they VOTE today. From the new CRYSTAL BALL: https://t.co/BRqqe5TZTT


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Larry Sabato
23 hours ago:   Thursday Mar 21 - 2:39pm
ICYMI TODAY'S CRYSTAL BALL. Absolutely remarkable how much change there's been in the Electoral College map in BOTH directions from 2000 to 2016. Take a look! https://t.co/XR6bR6XcVO

Larry Sabato
23 hours ago:   Thursday Mar 21 - 2:32pm
Donald Trump’s Unhinged Obsession with “a Man Named John McCain” https://t.co/EejPjmx5i6

Larry Sabato
1 day ago:   Thursday Mar 21 - 1:08pm
RT @CarterLibrary: While we still think some of you may have jumped the gun (ahem, @AJC, @Wikipedia), we're happy to join in and recognize that President Jimmy Carter has set, or will soon set, the record for being the US's oldest living president. https://t.co/2LcDGi1cpy


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Larry Sabato
1 day ago:   Wednesday Mar 20 - 6:25pm
Biden Pulls Off Dusty Tarp Covering Old Campaign Motorcycle https://t.co/XeBLRs5uTG

Larry Sabato
1 day ago:   Wednesday Mar 20 - 3:53pm
RT @MitchLandrieu: Had a great time today with ⁦@LarrySabato⁩’s class at UVA today about the courage we need to have in our everyday lives in order to confront the challenges of today. Many lessons to be learned from President Kennedy’s courage and forward looking vision of America. https://t.co/9p8RvbKwPj


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Larry Sabato
1 day ago:   Wednesday Mar 20 - 3:45pm
I endorse the book enthusiastically. Mayor Mitch Landrieu of New Orleans truly earned the JFK Profile in Courage Award he received. There are useful lessons for Charlottesville and all of the South. My students today loved his lecture--energetic with a compelling message. https://t.co/xml8bTFStu

Larry Sabato
1 day ago:   Wednesday Mar 20 - 3:31pm
It was a pleasure having @MitchLandrieu in my class today. His lecture was incredibly insightful and he made some interesting points on why he removed confederate statues in his home city. https://t.co/G328KgpvXI


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Larry Sabato
2 days ago:   Wednesday Mar 20 - 12:55pm
Trump on the White House lawn now attacking Mueller because Mueller didn’t get a single vote for President while Trump got 306 EVs. Huh? So unelected law enforcement shouldn’t investigate elected officials for corruption. “L’etat c’est moi.” Extremely dangerous authoritarianism!

Larry Sabato
2 days ago:   Tuesday Mar 19 - 3:15pm
RT @Center4Politics: If you’ve seen tragic Zapruder film then you know of former Secret Service Agent @ClintHill_SS & his bravery on 11/22/63. Agent Hill & co-author @LisaMcCubbin join @LarrySabato @Center4Politics @UVABatten March 27th. Limited seats left. Register below. https://t.co/4KNh9226wS

Larry Sabato
2 days ago:   Tuesday Mar 19 - 3:14pm
RT @Center4Politics: TOMORROW (Wed. March 20th): @MitchLandrieu, former Mayor of New Orleans, joins @LarrySabato @Center4Politics for a special guest lecture 2-3PM, Minor Hall. Ongoing series #DemocracyInPerilousTimes with @UVABatten. Few seats remain. Click below to register. https://t.co/O8DZMqPzXZ

Larry Sabato
3 days ago:   Monday Mar 18 - 6:46pm
NEW: A HuffPost investigation has identified seven U.S. military members who belong to a white nationalist group. https://t.co/taqdmaram6 # via @HuffPostPol

Larry Sabato
3 days ago:   Monday Mar 18 - 4:58pm
President’s Cathartic Words Help Nation Begin To Heal Following Yet Another Senseless ‘Saturday Night Live’ https://t.co/GkPaGxgqyN

Larry Sabato
4 days ago:   Sunday Mar 17 - 9:38pm
@NPRinskeep For Beto—his hand gestures. For Warren—the beer. For Klobuchar—toughness with staff. And many other trivialities about them and others. Look at the stakes in this election! Forget the venial sins. Focus on the mortal sins. And there are some on the D side, and loads from Trump.

Larry Sabato
5 days ago:   Sunday Mar 17 - 11:15am
@HankSilverberg Don’t forget hand waving. Much of the media has an unerring ability to focus on the trivial, while trying to convince us the trivialities symbolize something bigger.

Larry Sabato
5 days ago:   Sunday Mar 17 - 10:53am
@wahooligan9 In this case, it’s pathological pettiness.

Larry Sabato
5 days ago:   Sunday Mar 17 - 10:19am
Trump’s nauseating, continuing attacks on the late Sen. John McCain are the latest manifestation of Trump’s incurable sickness—the inability to let anything go, the instinct not just to defeat but to destroy any opponent, a debilitating jealousy that continues beyond the grave.

Larry Sabato
5 days ago:   Sunday Mar 17 - 10:08am
Trump’s main ally (ironically) for the duration of the D contest is the news media. They are nitpicking D front runners to death while elevating niche candidates— before eventually tearing them down too. Not to worry: After the ‘20 election they’ll have lots of apology seminars.

Larry Sabato
6 days ago:   Friday Mar 15 - 9:33pm
@ShanChan_37 Yep. Hard to understand. But college basketball has even more upsets than politics. And if you're heartbroken, think how the hardworking team feels.

Larry Sabato
6 days ago:   Friday Mar 15 - 6:10pm
@dankennedy_nu @HolmesAndCo None of them will have you, Dan. :)

Larry Sabato
6 days ago:   Friday Mar 15 - 6:09pm
@HolmesAndCo @dankennedy_nu Let's abolish war too.

Larry Sabato
6 days ago:   Friday Mar 15 - 5:16pm
NEWS: Castro Brothers Are Doubling Down in 2020. "Joaquin Castro 'All But Certain' to Challenge John Cornyn for U.S. Senate, Source Says" https://t.co/0MQ0O2G1cG

Larry Sabato
6 days ago:   Friday Mar 15 - 5:00pm
@SamWangPhD Fascinating stats. I'm not sure that recent generations, now heavily D, will stay that way--though it's possible based on modern precedent. Everybody else: Follow @SamWangPhD and the Princeton Election Consortium. Always enlightening.

Larry Sabato
1 week ago:   Friday Mar 15 - 12:57pm
@RachelBitecofer @BetoORourke And yet they're still afraid to let it flow. What started out as friendship has grown stronger. May they have the strength to let it show.

Larry Sabato
1 week ago:   Friday Mar 15 - 12:53pm
@RonMotta He's forgotten what he started fighting for.

Larry Sabato
1 week ago:   Friday Mar 15 - 12:47pm
@AchimMuellers I understand, sir. REO Speedwagon once 'gave our life direction, they made everything so clear'. But it's now 2019.

Larry Sabato
1 week ago:   Friday Mar 15 - 12:38pm
@RachelBitecofer @BetoORourke Rachel, great idea. You're a candle in the window on a cold dark winter's night.

Larry Sabato
1 week ago:   Friday Mar 15 - 12:02pm
Agreed, Sam. It will happen at a less partisan time. Have they improved cryonics so we can survive that long? https://t.co/5RoFgx3XOZ

Larry Sabato
1 week ago:   Friday Mar 15 - 11:43am
Beto O’Rourke Rocked by Scandal as High-School Mixtape Appears to Include REO Speedwagon https://t.co/x9msyXjPMM

Larry Sabato
1 week ago:   Thursday Mar 14 - 6:13pm
@Mark_99nc @BetoORourke You were glad to add the "if". Sounds like a questionable, simplistic finding to me.

Larry Sabato
1 week ago:   Thursday Mar 14 - 6:11pm
@stevenwwebster @HoosForMemory Well, I DO support you, Steve, and Emory as well. There's nothing wrong with Emory being #2.

Larry Sabato
1 week ago:   Thursday Mar 14 - 6:04pm
RT @HoosForMemory: @uva @TreatHuey @alexisohanian @LarrySabato @ss9ug @presjimryan https://t.co/mUxLnDFknm

Larry Sabato
1 week ago:   Thursday Mar 14 - 6:03pm
Just watched this wonderful short film on the life of Sen. Birch Bayh, who just passed. I recommend it to others; a lot of U.S. history is packed into the film. Thanks for sharing it, and my condolences on your loss (the country's loss too). (Son Evan Bayh is a @UVALaw alum.) https://t.co/jXB7feWpRQ

Larry Sabato
1 week ago:   Thursday Mar 14 - 4:46pm
@jgobble Gardner is the most vulnerable GOP senator on the ballot in 2020. If Dems can't knock him out, they aren't going to come close to taking over the Senate. This vote was to deter the far right-wing from challenging him in a GOP primary.

Larry Sabato
1 week ago:   Thursday Mar 14 - 4:03pm
Tennis Instructor Mentoring Young Player Sees Potential In Parents’ Income https://t.co/Dz7NrrfTpt

Larry Sabato
1 week ago:   Thursday Mar 14 - 2:18pm
@MicFarris @BetoORourke @UVA Beto is very popular with the young.

Larry Sabato
1 week ago:   Thursday Mar 14 - 2:18pm
@Mush47 @BetoORourke Snipe away. Make yourself happy.

Larry Sabato
1 week ago:   Thursday Mar 14 - 2:14pm
@largebill68 @BetoORourke Today. I guess you haven't been watching.

Larry Sabato
1 week ago:   Thursday Mar 14 - 12:36pm
RIP Birch Bayh, ex-IN Senator and main author of the 25th Amendment—added in 1967 when we weren’t so afraid to change the Constitution. The 25th wasn’t perfect but was much needed for sensible Presidential succession. Spurred by JFK assassination.

Larry Sabato
1 week ago:   Thursday Mar 14 - 12:10pm
You can tell @BetoORourke is something of a threat to other Dems and maybe even Trump. Some D operatives are already sniping, Trump goes after Beto’s moving hands, and the news media is hyper-critical.

Larry Sabato
1 week ago:   Thursday Mar 14 - 12:46am
With @BetoORourke in, and Biden & several others expected relatively soon, the D field should stabilize at around 20 (counting generously). All the usual factors will matter, but the summer debate-fest looms ever larger. Dems will want to thin the herd sooner, not later.

Larry Sabato
1 week ago:   Wednesday Mar 13 - 12:35pm
RT @Miller_Center: Get a little closer to the presidency: 24 events, 3 days w/ @madeleine, @KarlRove, @MelodyCBarnes, @SecretaryCard, @johndickerson, @DevalPatrick, @AmbassadorRice, @Peter_Wehner, @LarrySabato, & many more. Beautiful place, beautiful time of year. Oh, and it's free! Join us!

Larry Sabato
1 week ago:   Wednesday Mar 13 - 12:26pm
No such thing as bad publicity in the giant field of Dem Candidates—“5 Things To Know About Andrew Yang” https://t.co/QhcmeXcdh6

Larry Sabato
1 week ago:   Tuesday Mar 12 - 12:06pm
There’s one list of elite colleges circulating today that I’m delighted @UVA isn’t on.

Larry Sabato
1 week ago:   Monday Mar 11 - 10:07pm
@tbooth_98 not really

Larry Sabato
1 week ago:   Monday Mar 11 - 8:16pm
@AGTheodoridis @CCESTweet @stephengoggin @jahenderson0 Let's give the public some credit. Knowledge of civic facts is not, well, excessive--but here a giant majority of Americans get the D (blue) and R (red) colors correct!

Larry Sabato
1 week ago:   Monday Mar 11 - 6:30pm
Glad I didn't go: "Most Anticipated Events At South By Southwest 2019" https://t.co/7F6IUGmcEU via @theonion

Larry Sabato
1 week ago:   Monday Mar 11 - 6:26pm
@vcczar The packages the cities put together are important--the money they can raise for it, the accommodations, and so on. In this case, Dems were sending a general signal that wouldn't ignore WI (and the Midwest) as they did in 2016. Fair enough.

Larry Sabato
1 week ago:   Monday Mar 11 - 5:58pm
@cmarmc Mike Wallace and Bob Schieffer were there, that's for sure. OK, end of quiz. I have work to do.

Larry Sabato
1 week ago:   Monday Mar 11 - 4:00pm
@cmarmc Dan Rather. Now give me a hard one.

Larry Sabato
1 week ago:   Monday Mar 11 - 3:59pm
@scfehr1 Without Wallace, Nixon would have won the entire election handily, almost certainly securing a solid majority of the national vote.

Larry Sabato
1 week ago:   Monday Mar 11 - 3:52pm
@cintigal51 Thanks. I hand out dull tweets like tranquilizers to calm people on Twitter.

Larry Sabato
1 week ago:   Monday Mar 11 - 3:49pm
Just saying a distinct "convention effect", whether + or -, is rare. A possible exception is when a party uses its convention as a focal point to organize a competitive state. Obama did this in '08 w/CO. Maybe Dems can do this w/WI or GOP w/NC in '20. That strategy makes sense.

Larry Sabato
1 week ago:   Monday Mar 11 - 3:38pm
When did a national convention itself cost a party the state in which the convention was held? 1968 (D). Massive clashes between Mayor Daley's Chicago police & anti-Vietnam War demonstrators ruined HHH's nomination & helped Nixon win IL (and the country) narrowly in the fall.

Larry Sabato
1 week ago:   Sunday Mar 10 - 2:40pm
@Techtonic17 For the record, I'm opposed to following the dear leader in lockstep--ANY dear leader. Let a thousand flowers bloom.

Larry Sabato
1 week ago:   Sunday Mar 10 - 9:52am
@Techtonic17 Scandalous? Who said anything about scandal? It's just reality--and in the nature of the Democratic Party.

Larry Sabato
1 week ago:   Sunday Mar 10 - 9:41am
You'd think there was something new about Democratic disarray. Humorist Will Rogers got a lot of laughs with variations of, "I belong to no organized political party. I'm a Dimmycrat." Rogers died in 1935--and nothing's changed.

Larry Sabato
1 week ago:   Saturday Mar 9 - 3:47pm
What would those two Corinthians say? [WWTTCS?]

Larry Sabato
1 week ago:   Saturday Mar 9 - 3:45pm
God Offers People of Alabama New Bibles to Replace Ones Trump Signed https://t.co/inIdCdKXNK

Larry Sabato
1 week ago:   Saturday Mar 9 - 1:43pm
@skmoskowitz @CookPolitical Of course. We charge what they’re worth. Zero.

Larry Sabato
2 weeks ago:   Friday Mar 8 - 12:48pm
When news media can't find out what's really happening because they're viewed as 'the enemies of the people', then 'we the people' of all stripes are the real losers. https://t.co/vz5MXAESxM

Larry Sabato
2 weeks ago:   Friday Mar 8 - 11:37am
@joehick58 Of course something will go wrong. Some things, actually.

Larry Sabato
2 weeks ago:   Friday Mar 8 - 10:10am
How the press has stayed the same from JFK to Trump: Some in the news media traded their integrity and purpose for access and influence. https://t.co/eBeJRDhSbV

Larry Sabato
2 weeks ago:   Thursday Mar 7 - 8:06pm
@codykirkpatrick I've read that book. You're right--it's superb. ;)

Larry Sabato
2 weeks ago:   Thursday Mar 7 - 8:03pm
@DrJasonJohnson @kkondik You're very probably right, Jason. With apologies to @kkondik, Ohio is now too Republican to play its traditional role as bellwether.

Larry Sabato
2 weeks ago:   Thursday Mar 7 - 1:55pm
@JoanAnzelmo That wouldn't sell at all with the D base. Hard to imagine the Dem ticket without at least one woman for 2020.

Larry Sabato
2 weeks ago:   Thursday Mar 7 - 1:14pm
@twistopherrobin Don’t worry, be happy. You’ve got four left.

Larry Sabato
2 weeks ago:   Thursday Mar 7 - 1:06pm
@james161davis Requires a lot more than a tweet to respond.

Larry Sabato
2 weeks ago:   Thursday Mar 7 - 1:02pm
@JR_Grif Defeatist! (Kidding)

Larry Sabato
2 weeks ago:   Thursday Mar 7 - 1:01pm
@conradkaz @kkondik That’s what they all say—until they get an offer to be VP.

Larry Sabato
2 weeks ago:   Thursday Mar 7 - 1:00pm
@Genuflectional @kkondik I used 2000 thinking, not 1992. If Gore has picked Sen. Bob Graham(D-FL), he would have won FL outright and thus the White House. So in a close election, yes, it can make a big difference.

Larry Sabato
2 weeks ago:   Thursday Mar 7 - 12:54pm
@Rigel9000 @kkondik I’m old fashioned. I want a geographic balance. MA and VT? Really?

Larry Sabato
2 weeks ago:   Thursday Mar 7 - 12:50pm
@ChazNuttycombe @kkondik Yes, I know this can’t/won’t be done in time for 2020, if it ever happens.

Larry Sabato
2 weeks ago:   Thursday Mar 7 - 12:48pm
@ChazNuttycombe @kkondik Agreed. We ought to have a universal rule requiring a special election for any open SEN seat. GOV can fill seat only for months until the special election. The appointee should be from the party of the departed incumbent AND the appointee should not be able to run in the special.

Larry Sabato
2 weeks ago:   Thursday Mar 7 - 12:40pm
Brown would be a good match for an eastern or western coastal D POTUS nominee. Dems must reverse, at least partly, the Blue Wall crumble of 2016. Do you agree, @kkondik, aka Mr. Ohio?

Larry Sabato
2 weeks ago:   Thursday Mar 7 - 12:36pm
Sen. Sherrod Brown(D-Ohio) is NOT running for President, but his “listening tour” floated his name and reminded Dems he’d make a good VP candidate—and a chance to win Ohio.

Larry Sabato
2 weeks ago:   Wednesday Mar 6 - 9:20pm
In a large field of candidates, unexpected things can and do happen. Maybe Andrew Yang is one of those unexpected things, er, people.

Larry Sabato
2 weeks ago:   Wednesday Mar 6 - 9:18pm
@SharpestJim Since my Dad died of pancreatic cancer in 1995, significant advances have been made. It's one of the toughest cancers but if managed well, one's life can still be extended.

Larry Sabato
2 weeks ago:   Wednesday Mar 6 - 9:15pm
How Little Known Andrew Yang May End Up on the 2020 Debate Stage by Gaming the System https://t.co/duWeykATx6 via @thedailybeast

Larry Sabato
2 weeks ago:   Wednesday Mar 6 - 8:11pm
Wonderful! And we didn't even have to call on #TimApple for help. https://t.co/Zlj463MAvU

Larry Sabato
2 weeks ago:   Wednesday Mar 6 - 4:34pm
@DanteDeVito Thanks and Wahoowa. I wasn't aware of a couple of the challengers.

Larry Sabato
2 weeks ago:   Wednesday Mar 6 - 1:42pm
@alan_dow @legal_lou @YouTube A, of course--just for the courage to do it.

Larry Sabato
2 weeks ago:   Wednesday Mar 6 - 1:38pm
Hope those with influence can help. https://t.co/xIvHMPQCnM

Larry Sabato
2 weeks ago:   Tuesday Mar 5 - 7:07pm
@OpinionatedTim The tax returns are coming.

Larry Sabato
2 weeks ago:   Tuesday Mar 5 - 4:54pm
@ehartman1975 @RachelBitecofer Polling averaging saves you from having to worry about this. What, me worry?

Larry Sabato
2 weeks ago:   Tuesday Mar 5 - 4:52pm
@RachelBitecofer The older we get, the more we know that the perfect must never become the enemy of the good.

Larry Sabato
2 weeks ago:   Tuesday Mar 5 - 4:36pm
@MWaaakaaaa Out of my deep sense of fairness, I believe each billionaire should get a turn in the Oval Office. No billionaire left behind.

Larry Sabato
2 weeks ago:   Tuesday Mar 5 - 4:18pm
@jsabatojr Maybe over a good cup of coffee.

Larry Sabato
2 weeks ago:   Tuesday Mar 5 - 4:16pm
@debitking Hillary didn’t drop out. She was never in the mix. Not sure about Biden. I hear contradictory things.

Larry Sabato
2 weeks ago:   Tuesday Mar 5 - 4:11pm
Michael Bloomberg NOT running for POTUS. But he earlier pledged to spend big $$ to insure Donald Trump loses even if he (Bloomberg) wasn’t in the mix.

Larry Sabato
2 weeks ago:   Tuesday Mar 5 - 3:14pm
@GregoryKoger That always trips me up.

Larry Sabato
2 weeks ago:   Tuesday Mar 5 - 3:13pm
@Th3W3b5t3r Wallace was crass and populist—both of which the Virginia of the time abhorred. I participated in a Norfolk candlelight protest in ‘68 against Wallace, and some of the most conservative people I knew joined in.

Larry Sabato
2 weeks ago:   Tuesday Mar 5 - 3:10pm
@FingerootB No way! This is a democracy! ;)

Larry Sabato
2 weeks ago:   Tuesday Mar 5 - 3:09pm
@SteveKettmann But he wouldn’t admit that so would still qualify for the B primary.