@LarrySabato


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Larry Sabato
13 hours ago:   Sunday Jan 20 - 8:28am
2 years today. Seems like 20. #Trump at midterm

Larry Sabato
1 day ago:   Saturday Jan 19 - 2:55pm
RT @scottwongDC: Some on the right NOT HAPPY with TRUMP border proposal either. Even though it doesn't have a pathway to citizenship, some conservatives believe: 1) it will encourage more illegal immigration 2) POTUS is giving up too much for a wall that will never be fully constructed.

Larry Sabato
1 day ago:   Saturday Jan 19 - 2:55pm
Nobody's happy, and the proposal isn't even public. https://t.co/gnidDBccOU

Larry Sabato
1 day ago:   Saturday Jan 19 - 8:30am
At start of Trump’s third year in office, his job approval lags most of his recent predecessors https://t.co/Q93muSrmRD

Larry Sabato
2 days ago:   Friday Jan 18 - 7:59pm
So which parts are "not accurate"? We all want to know., and the public is due a full explanation. https://t.co/3J5GhQz17e

Larry Sabato
2 days ago:   Friday Jan 18 - 7:53pm
The standards of integrity--high or low--for any administration are set by the president. As that old phrase goes, a fish rots from the head, and no part of the fish can avoid the stink. https://t.co/LRD5EyQeYx

Larry Sabato
2 days ago:   Friday Jan 18 - 12:25pm
@HenrySeeliger I could charge you with ageism, but I'm letting you go this time with a warning.

Larry Sabato
2 days ago:   Friday Jan 18 - 12:16pm
RT @maggieNYT: The president once again threatens a witness before congress by threatening his family. https://t.co/KX93gQDBpH

Larry Sabato
2 days ago:   Friday Jan 18 - 12:15pm
RT @joshscampbell: These explosive @Buzzfeed revelations should cause soul-searching by those who have assisted @realDonaldTrump in attacking Mueller & the FBI. They should prepare themselves for the possibility they may have been wrong, they may have been used, and the President might be a crook. https://t.co/yLEHvEf02M


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Larry Sabato
2 days ago:   Friday Jan 18 - 12:13pm
Wise Words from the Heir...#MLKDay https://t.co/p3806RPzII

Larry Sabato
2 days ago:   Friday Jan 18 - 12:10pm
@HenrySeeliger Cruel. But with you and your generation, I take the bad with the good. If you want to stay young, spend time around young people. If you want to die young, try to keep up with young people.

Larry Sabato
2 days ago:   Friday Jan 18 - 6:53am
@ScottPaterno Politics makes strange bedfellows.

Larry Sabato
2 days ago:   Friday Jan 18 - 6:52am
@manerdm Release of the full report is critical. Redactions should be few and far between—ideally.

Larry Sabato
2 days ago:   Friday Jan 18 - 6:50am
@iDougradio Not that I’ve seen.

Larry Sabato
2 days ago:   Friday Jan 18 - 6:50am
@BWray_ Let’s see what’s actually in Mueller’s report.

Larry Sabato
2 days ago:   Friday Jan 18 - 6:47am
@JulieWilcoxWX @JohnJHarwood The truth always matters.

Larry Sabato
2 days ago:   Friday Jan 18 - 6:06am
As serious as it gets: If it can be proven, Trump is guilty of suborning perjury and obstruction of justice. https://t.co/NqwyCnzdVR

Larry Sabato
3 days ago:   Thursday Jan 17 - 3:03pm
Do "outstanding" college employees take $13,000 in bagged cash for the purpose of rigging polls? According to Liberty University, yes. https://t.co/1GVhqjWLhR

Larry Sabato
3 days ago:   Thursday Jan 17 - 11:58am
@jbpoersch The two Corinthians probably said it was ok.

Larry Sabato
3 days ago:   Thursday Jan 17 - 11:52am
Michael Cohen offered Liberty University CIO $50,000 to rig two online polls for Trump, report says https://t.co/fmwFe2xqks via @clarionledger

Larry Sabato
3 days ago:   Thursday Jan 17 - 10:35am
Good idea, @JoeBorelliNYC

Larry Sabato
3 days ago:   Thursday Jan 17 - 10:33am
Push for 'Otto Warmbier Way' outside North Korea’s UN Mission picks up steam (I heartily endorse this effort.) https://t.co/7xYXdHWSYu #FoxNews

Larry Sabato
3 days ago:   Thursday Jan 17 - 10:17am
@SamuelCrvnts The Crystal Ball is a good addiction. Thank you, and spread the word.

Larry Sabato
3 days ago:   Thursday Jan 17 - 10:15am
@kevsaucebro @Center4Politics @SamuelCrvnts We appreciate the support!

Larry Sabato
3 days ago:   Thursday Jan 17 - 10:12am
There’s an early front runner for TIME’s Man of the Year, maybe Man of the Decade: Vladimir Putin. So much winning.

Larry Sabato
3 days ago:   Thursday Jan 17 - 9:48am
RT @kkondik: 188 Safe D, 154 Safe R -- 26 Likely R/20 Likely D -- 15 Leans R/17 Leans D -- 5 R Toss-ups/10 D Toss-ups https://t.co/EokITwSptc

Larry Sabato
3 days ago:   Thursday Jan 17 - 9:48am
If you're in Charlottesville next Thursday, join us for our American Democracy Conference. If not, we'll be livestreaming the event. All the details here: https://t.co/wdSWSQDImG

Larry Sabato
3 days ago:   Thursday Jan 17 - 9:47am
Crystal Ball: @kkondik with our debut House ratings for 2020. https://t.co/1bjshXPYR0 https://t.co/aQ5LwvTktQ


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Larry Sabato
4 days ago:   Wednesday Jan 16 - 3:43pm
@lsimonis Thanks for filling me in!

Larry Sabato
4 days ago:   Wednesday Jan 16 - 3:43pm
Ah, here's the answer about the not-quite-Washington Post being handed out today in DC... https://t.co/6smSo7dxCK

Larry Sabato
4 days ago:   Wednesday Jan 16 - 1:58pm
What’s the story here? https://t.co/gItMHh1qE0

Larry Sabato
4 days ago:   Tuesday Jan 15 - 11:01pm
@BenJKest Much more--but Ohio has also gone well to the right. Brown as the nominee would mean that Ohio would still be competitive in 2020.

Larry Sabato
4 days ago:   Tuesday Jan 15 - 10:44pm
Sen. Sherrod Brown(D-OH) announces a "listening tour" of IA NH NV SC. Don't jump to conclusions. He's just listening, not exploring. And there's a difference, though I'm not sure what it is. So what if he's chosen the first 4 states to vote in 2020. Means nothing. #AnotherDemRuns

Larry Sabato
5 days ago:   Tuesday Jan 15 - 9:57pm
@HokieJCH Good sports are good people. Thanks.

Larry Sabato
5 days ago:   Tuesday Jan 15 - 9:54pm
@1parickert @UVAMensHoops @UVA I wouldn't want to live in a country that would have me as its President. But thanks.

Larry Sabato
5 days ago:   Tuesday Jan 15 - 9:53pm
@2019politics_ There's always next year. But I hope the rest of your day was splendid.

Larry Sabato
5 days ago:   Tuesday Jan 15 - 9:49pm
RT @snowdenlit: @LarrySabato @UVAMensHoops @UVA If you guys win the championship and are invited to The White House, eat before you go.

Larry Sabato
5 days ago:   Tuesday Jan 15 - 9:47pm
If we're really serious about solving the #GovernmentShutdown and the #BrexitShambles, we should ask @UVAMensHoops to handle it. Congrats @UVA (#4 and going up) on a brilliant win over Virginia Tech (#9 and, well, you know). 81-59.

Larry Sabato
5 days ago:   Tuesday Jan 15 - 9:20pm
@DrRobertChiles Barry Goldwater had Ronald Reagan and George Murphy in his corner, but neither could sing.

Larry Sabato
5 days ago:   Tuesday Jan 15 - 9:18pm
Nice job by the Crystal Ball's associate editor emeritus, Geoff Skelley (now with https://t.co/KBuqS1ESMh).

Larry Sabato
5 days ago:   Tuesday Jan 15 - 8:55pm
Martha McSally May Run For Senate Twice In Two Years. How Have Others Like Her Fared? https://t.co/67dEL2Gn5R

Larry Sabato
5 days ago:   Tuesday Jan 15 - 8:14pm
@dannymazza Absolutely. It was a very close race. :)

Larry Sabato
5 days ago:   Tuesday Jan 15 - 8:09pm
Sincere thanks to Theresa May and the UK for replacing the US as the world’s most embarrassing and chaotic democracy. Keep up the good work! #Brexit

Larry Sabato
5 days ago:   Tuesday Jan 15 - 8:03pm
RT @haveigotnews: BREAKING: Brexit.

Larry Sabato
5 days ago:   Tuesday Jan 15 - 8:01pm
RT @costareports: Couple senior Republican lawmakers tell me the only way this breaks open is if TSA employees stay home and Americans get furious about their flights. That’s the only out, they say. And they’re close to the WH.

Larry Sabato
5 days ago:   Tuesday Jan 15 - 7:42pm
@ajcarrillo Yes, when candidates explore, it turns out to be well mapped territory full of people saying, Run! Run!

Larry Sabato
5 days ago:   Tuesday Jan 15 - 7:41pm
@ngelfond Once the field is fuller we will try to do that in the Crystal Ball.

Larry Sabato
5 days ago:   Tuesday Jan 15 - 7:39pm
@PatrickMillsaps Now the candidates just adopt a pop song as their own.

Larry Sabato
5 days ago:   Tuesday Jan 15 - 7:35pm
@cmarmc Sinatra sang JFK’s campaign song, “High Hopes”. Old Blue Eyes was also in a TV ad for HHH in 1968. Switched to GOP in 1970s.

Larry Sabato
5 days ago:   Tuesday Jan 15 - 7:31pm
@JayeDavis55 My father was a dead ringer for Ed Ames. I recall people coming up and asking Dad if he was Ames.

Larry Sabato
5 days ago:   Tuesday Jan 15 - 7:24pm
Carol Channing and her version of “Hello Dolly” for Lyndon Johnson was perhaps the most prominent Broadway sprinkle of stardust in 1964. JFK had Hollywood in the palm of his hand. LBJ inherited the stars—until the Vietnam War heated up.

Larry Sabato
5 days ago:   Tuesday Jan 15 - 7:14pm
Ed Ames - Hello, Lyndon! (A-Side Version) - YouTube https://t.co/oet8fqxOrr

Larry Sabato
5 days ago:   Tuesday Jan 15 - 7:12pm
Carol Channing for Lyndon Johnson (stock footage / archival footage) - YouTube https://t.co/MkwUHuT74m

Larry Sabato
5 days ago:   Tuesday Jan 15 - 7:08pm
Another Dem POTUS candidate, Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand of NY, is “exploring”. She’s in, of course. Will soon be so many in the D field you wont be able to tell the players without a program. There’s always an invisible primary for donors and staff; this one will be confusing too.

Larry Sabato
5 days ago:   Tuesday Jan 15 - 1:56pm
For three Texas universities, firing their football coaches in 2018 could cost almost $7 million combined https://t.co/rGgTZjciSg via @TexasTribune

Larry Sabato
5 days ago:   Monday Jan 14 - 10:27pm
@2019politics_ Happy birthday, but I hope you are rewarded with something else.

Larry Sabato
6 days ago:   Monday Jan 14 - 5:17pm
RT @AGTheodoridis: Thrilled that my article with @stephengoggin & @jahenderson0 is out @PolBehavior! Voters (even with low political knowledge) do "know" what goes with what, and party and ideological labels are largely interchangeable. Ungated for your reading pleasure: https://t.co/IE3NkqXGGO

Larry Sabato
6 days ago:   Monday Jan 14 - 4:25pm
Not much comparative data on the 'change-minds' effect of Oval Office speeches over the years, but 2% seems minuscule. More evidence that in the Trump era, people are dug in.

Larry Sabato
6 days ago:   Monday Jan 14 - 4:22pm
This stood out to me in the new Quinnipiac poll: "Did President Trump's recent televised address to the nation change your mind about building a wall along the border with Mexico, or not?" 89% NO, 2% YES (Whites w/college ed=1%). Margin of error: 3.3%.

Larry Sabato
6 days ago:   Monday Jan 14 - 3:26pm
GOP Strips Steve King Of Post On Powerful House Segregation Committee (satire) https://t.co/v1Fghr5mul

Larry Sabato
6 days ago:   Monday Jan 14 - 2:03pm
Renewal at the start: "Spring" semester starts in snow but @UVA students are ready to dive into our new @UVABatten School class on JFK/Presidential Leadership. https://t.co/aNGnkQUDtK


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Larry Sabato
6 days ago:   Monday Jan 14 - 1:35pm
Look for this sign board at an airport near you. https://t.co/SJvS0HYZRQ

Larry Sabato
6 days ago:   Monday Jan 14 - 1:24pm
In President Trump's defense, why should he follow a new controversy about a white supremacist? He's already clearly stated his views on the entire subject: "There are good people on both sides." https://t.co/Gvk6MoEU0t

Larry Sabato
6 days ago:   Monday Jan 14 - 1:12pm
@GetStokked How appropriate on the first day of the new semester. I'll be teaching at 2 pm. Thanks for remembering.

Larry Sabato
6 days ago:   Monday Jan 14 - 12:18pm
Kremlin Names Trump Employee of the Month (old @BorowitzReport satire column but well-timed given weekend headlines). https://t.co/6pIDfudikG

Larry Sabato
1 week ago:   Sunday Jan 13 - 10:10am
@PrestonBryant2 In a very large field, there are probably more candidates running for VP than POTUS--though they would never admit it and couldn't to remain in the running.

Larry Sabato
1 week ago:   Saturday Jan 12 - 9:23pm
Trump has concealed details of his face-to-face encounters with Putin from senior officials in administration https://t.co/cWMUIRJZSC

Larry Sabato
1 week ago:   Saturday Jan 12 - 4:40pm
@rmunro3 They all hope that, if they can't be the POTUS nominee, they'll be the VPOTUS choice--except Joe Biden, who's been there, done that.

Larry Sabato
1 week ago:   Saturday Jan 12 - 4:38pm
@scottmac1955 I've already had two inquiries about whether he's related to Fidel. (No connection whatsoever.)

Larry Sabato
1 week ago:   Saturday Jan 12 - 1:56pm
Julian Castro, newest entry in the D White House sweepstakes, came across as serious and substantive. Is that enough? Will he need more sizzle? Does he have the killer instinct to run against Trump? We'll find out.

Larry Sabato
1 week ago:   Saturday Jan 12 - 8:59am
How Americans see illegal immigration, the border wall and political compromise https://t.co/Ot7bn1qLXu

Larry Sabato
1 week ago:   Saturday Jan 12 - 8:22am
@CTIronman @orrinknox @BryanDBender That did not make him a minor candidate.

Larry Sabato
1 week ago:   Saturday Jan 12 - 8:21am
@CTIronman @BryanDBender Clinton was never seen as a minor candidate by the political community, period. He was well known in political circles, had nearly run in 1988, etc. We’re simply discussing who was considered a minor candidate.

Larry Sabato
1 week ago:   Saturday Jan 12 - 8:12am
@orrinknox @CTIronman @BryanDBender Kerry was certainly not a minor candidate. He’d been a national figure since the Vietnam War.

Larry Sabato
1 week ago:   Saturday Jan 12 - 8:11am
@CTIronman @BryanDBender Clinton had been Governor for 12 years. Not the early favorite but certainly not a minor candidate.

Larry Sabato
1 week ago:   Saturday Jan 12 - 7:25am
@BryanDBender In modern times (FDR onwards), Carter is the only exception. None of the other eventual presidents were considered to be minor figures/candidates by the political community when they announced. Yes, including Obama.

Larry Sabato
1 week ago:   Friday Jan 11 - 7:04pm
@pmartin_UdeM That’s exactly what many of these candidates are saying to themselves.

Larry Sabato
1 week ago:   Friday Jan 11 - 6:47pm
If you don’t know who she is, you’re excused. Expect lots of minor figures to look in the mirror and see a president. https://t.co/laXfPzBOdx

Larry Sabato
1 week ago:   Friday Jan 11 - 1:11pm
@LouHatter @BetoORourke @DavidWright_CNN Well, it does prove he has good teeth...That's important in humans and horses.

Larry Sabato
1 week ago:   Thursday Jan 10 - 5:33pm
I'm a convert. I agree with Donald Trump--at least the one that existed in 2005. (There's always an old tweet, and there's usually a video clip, too). https://t.co/K7CqEDjd11

Larry Sabato
1 week ago:   Thursday Jan 10 - 5:22pm
@sjmarmon But the entertainment value is priceless. Man does not live by bread alone.

Larry Sabato
1 week ago:   Thursday Jan 10 - 3:56pm
Things are so depressing just now, let’s welcome this distraction! And Jimmy Carter saw a strange UFO years before he became President. Just thought I’d throw that in there. https://t.co/Ak7r0LqLM5

Larry Sabato
1 week ago:   Thursday Jan 10 - 7:14am
Somehow it's comforting to know that one norm is still alive--the pettiness in politics is as vibrant as ever. FL Gov. Scott(R) stiffs incoming FL Gov. DeSantis(R). https://t.co/x0N8hrS2M6

Larry Sabato
1 week ago:   Wednesday Jan 9 - 8:37pm
@oycellarsdavid Any of their 72 legislators.

Larry Sabato
1 week ago:   Wednesday Jan 9 - 8:10pm
VA Republicans, in order to change their image and broaden their appeal, choose two blondish white males to give their official response.

Larry Sabato
1 week ago:   Wednesday Jan 9 - 8:01pm
Gov. Northam proposes decriminalization of possession of small amount of marijuana. Yep, Virginia’s changed a lot! Democrats cheer, Republicans frown. Even many R young people strongly back this proposal. Another reason why those 18-29 vote 2-1 Democratic.

Larry Sabato
1 week ago:   Wednesday Jan 9 - 7:17pm
BREAKING: Surprise Announcement for POTUS: VA Gov. Ralph Northam(D-VA) in his State of the Commonwealth address, just stunned the legislature by saying, “I am running for President [long pause] of the Eastern Shore Antique Car Club.” His wife and Terry McAuliffe almost fainted.

Larry Sabato
1 week ago:   Wednesday Jan 9 - 4:14pm
Tom Steyer not running for President. Wise decision. He can do the Democrats more good by continuing his efforts to register young people.

Larry Sabato
1 week ago:   Tuesday Jan 8 - 10:36pm
RT @maggieNYT: Trump didn’t want to give the speech tonight and told TV anchors at lunch today that his planned trip to the border is a waste of time. https://t.co/GFnpFnH8Tt

Larry Sabato
1 week ago:   Tuesday Jan 8 - 9:21pm
Now I see why Trump has never before given an Oval Office address. Just...bloody...awful. #TrumpAddress

Larry Sabato
1 week ago:   Tuesday Jan 8 - 9:12pm
This Oval Office speech didn't change 100 minds. We all know what we think of this President. His base cheers whatever he says, and the remainder of America sees his giant credibility gap. #TrumpAddress

Larry Sabato
1 week ago:   Tuesday Jan 8 - 9:05pm
The fact-checkers are climbing the walls. So little time in a short speech, so many misstatements and half-truths. #TrumpAddress

Larry Sabato
1 week ago:   Tuesday Jan 8 - 9:01pm
@CubanBandLeader @TheRealWHH @ReveresHorse You're harsh and hyper-critical. You made tons of mistakes on "I Love Lucy". :)

Larry Sabato
1 week ago:   Tuesday Jan 8 - 8:51pm
@TheRealWHH @ReveresHorse I followed you out of pity. All that fighting, campaigning, and speechifying just to get a lousy 30 days in the White House. Not fair! On the other hand, you're the only US President who never made a mistake in office.

Larry Sabato
1 week ago:   Tuesday Jan 8 - 3:32pm
@ChazNuttycombe Much better to have full control. Fairfax doesn't have all the powers of a Senate member.

Larry Sabato
1 week ago:   Tuesday Jan 8 - 3:30pm
And the very bad news for the VA GOP comes on a day when they got some good news--No more BS from CS (Corey Stewart, who is retiring from politics after his disastrous US Senate race).

Larry Sabato
1 week ago:   Tuesday Jan 8 - 3:18pm
This is a big D win. The GOP's last hold on state power is the General Assembly. Ds only have to gain 2 seats for control of each chamber; all 140 seats are on the ballot this November (odd-odd-year elections here). No surprise: Trump has low ratings in VA. https://t.co/M176i4jw8e

Larry Sabato
1 week ago:   Monday Jan 7 - 8:35pm
@tomr515 And does anybody believe the loquacious Teddy Roosevelt ever fell silent? TR built a canal so maybe he thinks Trump is entitled to a wall.

Larry Sabato
1 week ago:   Monday Jan 7 - 8:31pm
@ChrisBastianBkl As I heard it, the networks were told the speech would be 8 minutes.

Larry Sabato
1 week ago:   Monday Jan 7 - 8:29pm
@schuttedan Third cousin of the Nigerian Prince.